Post-Election Observations: Why St. Louis is Different

For St. Louis area voters the question going into last night’s race was whether or not the leftist momentum from New York and Denver would propel Cori Bush to victory in her effort to unseat Congressman Wesley Bell. It didn’t, and, while I expected a much closer race, I’m not surprised by the result. Why? Missouri’s First Congressional District doesn’t contain the demographic ingredients that are conducive to a DSA-style candidate winning. What are those demographics?

• Heavy gentrification fueled by college-educated white transplants. If we look at recent DSA Congressional and mayoral wins they've all been in areas with a very large and influential population of college-educated white transplants. This population, particularly urban college-educated younger white women, are the fuel that progressive politics in America runs on. New York, as an example, recently witnessed three transplant candidates defeat native New Yorkers riding on the wave of support from Mayor Zohran Mamdani (and the DSA for at least two of them). Due to St. Louis not being a major destination city for college-educated white transplants, not having the hottest job market, and not being seen as a “cool” city in the national discourse, these demographic trends are less impactful here. Yes, neighborhoods like Tower Grove South, Shaw, Benton Park, Gravois Park, and Forest Park Southeast have benefitted from elite overproduction, have been instrumental in “flipping the Board” and electing a slate of progressive candidates locally, but in a district that is mostly in St. Louis County, voters in these neighborhoods, which contain the base of Cori Bush supporters, become less important.

• An ethnic component. What we've witnessed in other cities is that while the DSA and the assortment of leftist organizations emanating from the Bernie Sanders movements are majority white they're most successful when they're able to recruit a candidate of color who can bring an added ethnic, racial, or religious voting bloc to add to the existing base of white progressive voters. Wesley Bell (Hazelwood East) and Cori Bush (Cardinal Ritter) are two black Americans who both grew-up in north St. Louis County.

• Massive Displacement. In places like New York, Chicago, and LA progressive candidates have benefitted from “reverse migration” which is the movement of black Americans back to the southern United States. In other cities, such was Washington DC, progressive candidates have benefitted from the the black population moving to suburban areas in large numbers. St. Louis City has witnessed a weakening of black political power and an ascension of white progressive voting power, but, once again, MO-1 is heavily in St. Louis County. The majority of those who have left St. Louis City in recent years are in St. Louis County and these are the kinds of local, rooted, and generational voters that DSA-backed candidates tend to struggle with regardless of their race.

• Organized Labor: As much as St. Louis City and County and the rest of the Rust Belt has been hammered by de-industrialization, bad trade deals, and a modern Democratic Party often turning its back on blue-collar workers in favor of college-educated professionals, St. Louis is still a blue-collar town and unions still matter here in Democratic primaries (Congrats to Jimmy Lappe on his State Rep win while I’m at it). Bell had big support from unions and that mattered particularly with working-class white voters in parts of south city, southwest city, south county, and north county.

• Foreign policy. There are small groups of voters who care very deeply about foreign policy issues. Many Jewish American voters are deeply committed to the security of Israel. Muslim Americans may disagree vehemently with one another on many foreign policy issues, but there is a general commitment to the Palestinian cause. However, contrary to what you may have seen on X, TikTok, or Facebook comment sections, a very small percentage of voters in MO-1 were motivated by foreign policy concerns. Their concern was local. Who can best represent the interests of St. Louis in DC? In this case, voters clearly favored sobriety and teamworking skills over the ability to create viral social media content. This race wasn’t won or lost on any foreign policy issue.

• Maps. We will have to study the voting data to see how the changes in the MO-1 map impacted this race. My initial read was that adding Maplewood and Webster Groves would help Bush while Richmond Heights and the southern part of the district would benefit Bell. I'm not sure these suburban changes mattered all that much with Bell performing so strongly in St. Louis City this time around.

Michigan

Michigan is actually one of my favorite states along with Pennsylvania and Florida. It appears that Abdul-Rahman El-Sayed squeaked by Haley Stevens in a tight race for the Democratic nomination for US Senate. I haven't seen such a celebratory mood from Arab and Muslim voters in Michigan since 2024 when they claimed credit for being the deciding factor in electing Donald Trump to the Presidency of the United States. El-Sayed will have his hands full in November against his Republican opponent Mike Rogers.

Etc.

I couldn't stop reading about Barack Obama even after the visit to the Obama Presidential Center in Chicago. I'm currently in the process of finishing the massive biography Rising Star by David Garrow. After being interrupted by the World Cup my film watching has resumed. St. Louisans should take advantage of the excellent slate of films being offered at the Hi-Pointe in the coming weeks.